High Projections for Restaurant Job Growth in 2016

Restaurant job growth is projected to outpace the overall economy in 2016, and the industry will add more than 300,000 jobs for the sixth consecutive calendar year, according to the NRA’s Chief Economist Bruce Grindy. His Economist’s Notebookcommentary and analysis appears regularly on Restaurant.org and Restaurant TrendMapper.

The restaurant industry continues to be one of the strongest job creators in the economy, with industry job growth outpacing the overall economy for the 16th consecutive year in 2015. Eating and drinking places, the primary component of the restaurant industry accounting for three-fourths of the total restaurant and foodservice workforce, added jobs at a 3.2 percent rate in 2015. This was more than a full percentage point above the 2.1 percent gain in total U.S. employment.

The industry’s 2015 gain marked the fourth consecutive year with job growth of at least 3 percent, the longest streak since the mid-1980s. With job growth outstripping the overall economy in each of the last 16 years, the eating-and-drinking-place sector saw its employment level jump by 38 percent. In contrast, the total number of jobs in the economy increased by only 10 percent during the same period.

Within the industry, job growth remained broad-based in 2015, with most of the major segments posting solid gains. The snack-and-nonalcoholic-beverage-bar segment – which includes concepts like coffee, doughnut and ice cream shops – led the way with a robust 6.5 percent employment gain in 2015, the fourth consecutive year with growth above 5 percent.

The quickservice segment added jobs at a 3.4 percent rate in 2015, while the tableservice segment expanded payrolls at a 3.3 percent pace.

Looking ahead, the NRA expects eating and drinking places to add jobs at a 3.0 percent rate in 2016, which will represent the fifth consecutive year in which the restaurant industry registered job growth of at least 3 percent. In comparison, the overall economy hasn’t posted job growth of 3 percent since 1994.

The projected 2016 increase will also represent the sixth consecutive calendar year in which restaurants added more than 300,000 jobs.

For the national labor market, 2015 was the strongest year yet in the aftermath of the Great Recession. The national economy added a net 2.9 million jobs on an annual basis in 2015, and the 2.1 percent employment increase was the strongest gain in 15 years.

Although the economy is expected to build on 2015’s positive performance, growth will likely be somewhat slower in 2016. The NRA projects total U.S. employment to increase 1.8 percent in 2016, down slightly from the 2.1 percent gain posted in 2015.

(via National Restaurant Association)

Women and Minority-Owned Restaurants Growing Sharply

Women-owned and minority-owned restaurant businesses grew at rates well above their cohorts in the overall economy in recent years, according to the NRA’s Chief Economist Bruce Grindy. His Economist’s Notebook commentary and analysis appears regularly on Restaurant.org and Restaurant TrendMapper.

In addition to providing employment opportunities for both first-time and experienced workers, the restaurant industry offers a path to entrepreneurship that no other industry can match. In fact, eight in 10 restaurant owners say their first job in the restaurant industry was an entry-level position, according to research by the National Restaurant Association Educational Foundation.

With few barriers to entry, the restaurant industry provides ownership opportunities to people of all backgrounds. This was on full display during the challenging economic environment in recent years, when women-owned and minority-owned restaurant businesses grew at rates well above their cohorts in the overall economy.

Between 2007 and 2012 (most recent data available), the number of women-owned restaurant businesses jumped 40 percent, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. During the same 5-year period, the number of women-owned businesses in the overall economy rose 27 percent.

As a result of these strong gains, 33 percent of restaurant businesses are majority-owned by women – up from 26 percent in 2007. Another 15 percent of restaurant businesses are equally-owned by women and men.

Minority-owned restaurant businesses also rose sharply in recent years. The number of Hispanic-owned restaurant businesses soared 51 percent between 2007 and 2012, while black- or African-American-owned restaurants jumped 49 percent. Both were above their corresponding growth rates in the overall economy.

The number of Asian-owned restaurant businesses increased 18 percent between 2007 and 2012, which was slightly below the 24 percent increase in the overall economy.

As a result of the steady growth in recent years, fully four in 10 restaurant businesses are majority-owned by minorities. In the overall economy, 29 percent of businesses are owned by minorities.

(via National Restaurant Association)

The Harri Total Talent Solution: Digital Applications & On Boarding

Harri's Total Talent Solution empowers hospitality companies to discover, interview, hire and onboard new employees on a singular, intuitive and modern platform.

The days of using antiquated ATS's or fumbling through paperwork are over. Harri saves you time, money and most importantly, your sanity!

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While creating the #1 hospitality network in NYC, we realized the need for innovative technology to easily replace archaic hiring systems that Talent Professionals are currently forced to use. Harri’s full-suite solution brings the entire hiring and on boarding process into one modern, hospitality-optimized HR platform.

Harris Interview Scheduler

Beginning with our Advanced Interview Scheduler, Harri is building modern services that remove the traditional pain points associated with hospitality hiring.

Once you've found candidates for your open positions on Harri, the next step is the interview. Our Interview Scheduler allows for effortless management of interviews, drastically reducing the hassle of no shows. It instills a system of checks and balances allowing employers to indicate if a candidate has attended or missed an interview. If that weren't enough, the tool also allows interviewers the ability to take notes that seamlessly integrate with the AMS flow.

Product Features:

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Harri Digital Application

The final step in the hiring process is on-boarding new employees.

When it comes to moving applicants through the hiring process, most businesses are accustomed to using traditional methods for this process, such as paper forms and physical filing systems. With the introduction of Harri's Digital Applications and Employee On-Boarding, those days are coming to an end!

Our system removes paper as well as duplication of data by pulling the candidate’s information seamlessly from their initial application through the hiring process. Traditional applicant tracking systems lose over 70% of applicants because of inefficiency. Harri has built an intuitive and streamlined solution designed to enable the hiring manager to build the ultimate team efficiently.

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You wouldn't still use a type writer or a wall phone anymore, so why use out of date tools? You shouldn't have to, which is why we're here to help you hire the modern way. Learn how Harri can help your business by contacting our sales department.

Restaurant Industry Added 47K Jobs in January

Hiring in America slowed down in January, with government data released Friday showing the economy added 151,000 jobs — less than the blockbuster growth of recent months but enough to keep the recovery on solid ground.

The data also showed a 2.5 percent spike in wages over the past year, an encouraging sign that the strength in the labor market might finally be translating into bigger paychecks. The unemployment rate also dipped to 4.9 percent, inching closer to what many economists believe is its lowest sustainable level.

Investors and policymakers are seeking reassurance on the health of the American recovery after the turmoil in global financial markets at the start of the year. Expectations for world economic growth have dimmed, and fears are rising that weakness overseas — particularly in China — could spill over onto U.S. shores.

But Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp., said January’s job growth indicates the slow and steady expansion since the Great Recession remains on track.

“The economy continues to muddle along, even though now and again it’s prone to a misstep,” he said.

Wall Street opened lower on the news Friday. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index dropped about 11 points in the first few minutes of trading, about 0.6 percent. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 54 points, or about 0.3 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 33 points, or 0.7 percent.

In the final months of 2015, the labor market was roaring, adding an average of 279,000 jobs each month, the fastest pace of the year. Employers went on the hiring spree even as the broader economy slowed to a crawl, dragged down by weak exports and a dropoff in business investment.

But many analysts believe that blockbuster pace is not sustainable. Though January’s job growth fell below Wall Street expectations, economists said a more modest pace was inevitable.

“Amid all the global economic turmoil and domestic market gyrations … [the data] show the U.S. is heading in the right direction,” said Beth Ann Bovino, U.S. chief economist at Standard & Poor’s Rating Service.

Once again, the retail, restaurant and health-care sectors showed the biggest job gains. Retailers added 58,000 jobs in January, while restaurants and bars hired 47,000. The health-care sector expanded by 37,000 positions.

Manufacturing delivered the biggest surprise, adding 29,000 jobs after almost no change during 2015. The industry has been hammered as a stronger dollar dampens international demand for U.S. goods, and plunging oil prices led to mass layoffs. The transportation sector shed 20,000 jobs in January after strong seasonal hiring the previous month.

But the data showed little change for several of the most distressed corners of the job market. About 2.1 million people have been out of work for six months or longer, about the same number as in June. Another 6 million have part-time jobs but would prefer full-time work. Hundreds of thousands have become so discouraged by their job prospects that they’ve stopped looking.

One key measure did show some improvement: The size of the workforce increased slightly, nudging the participation rate up to 62.7 percent after falling to the lowest level in a generation last year.

“Job creation and wage growth need to be far stronger, and they need to remain strong for a longer period of time, before the economy is close to full employment,” said Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.

The recovery in the labor market from the depths of the Great Recession was one of the key drivers of the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade. The move was intended to be a sign of the central bank’s faith in the health of the U.S. economy, and the Fed expected to slowly withdraw its historic support for the recovery over the next few years.

In addition, the strong dollar and low energy prices have pushed inflation well below the Fed’s target of 2 percent, the level generally associated with a healthy economy.

“Risks are tilted to the downside — it is still easier to see the [Fed] slowing down the rate of increases then speeding them up,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Zach Pandl, who have predicted the central bank will increase the rate three times this year.

But some Fed officials have cautioned against overreacting to movements in the market. In a speech Thursday evening, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she believes the economy remains fundamentally sound.

“Until we see further evidence to the contrary, my expectation is that the U.S economy will work through the latest episode of market turbulence and soft patch to regain its footing for moderate growth,” she said.

(via The Washington Post)

Most Consumers Not Ready to Stop Tipping

NEW YORK, Feb. 2, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- According to Horizon Media's latest Finger on the Pulse Survey — the agency's proprietary online research community comprised of 3,000 people reflective of the U.S. population — the majority of American consumers are not yet ready to embrace tipping bans, a phenomenon that is becoming increasingly popular in restaurants across the country. Millennials and Generation Z, however, are more open to change.

Tip banning - eliminating tipping in favor of paying servers a higher wage – is a becoming a hot issue as popular restaurant owners likeDanny Meyer of Shake Shack have begun instating the practice in their eateries. The change in practice isn't limited to the coasts. National chains like Joe's Crab Shack as well as independent establishments across the nation have also joined the ranks. This "service included" approach to the bill is already common in other parts of the world, including Europe.

Yet Horizon's latest Opinion Pulse data suggest these restaurants may be getting ahead of U.S. consumers' appetite for change: 81% of adult restaurant-goers are not yet ready to welcome built in tipping. These consumers want status quo -- the decision to tip within their control and dependant on a positive service experience. For over half of these restaurant-goers, the main drawbacks of built in tipping come down to expected effects on service: 55% say they would be forced to pay the same amount no matter how good or bad service is, and 52% say it should be up to them to decide how much to pay for service.

While older consumers are hesitant to embrace the change, Millennials and Gen Z are more ready for a tipping revolution: 29% of people aged 18-34 say tipping is an outdated and unfair practice versus 18% of people aged 35-49 and 13% of people aged 50-64. Just 44% of 18-34 year olds say they are against tip being built into an item price, versus 6 in 10 of the older crowd (61% of 35-49 and 59% of 50-64). But just because they are more forward-thinking on the practice doesn't mean they think the change will happen quickly. In fact, they are more skeptical: 70% of Millennials and Gen Z say they think tipping practices will be the same as they are now in 5 years' time (versus 60% of 35-49 and 53% of 50-64).

"There are real economic and life stage realities at play for the younger crowd," said Kirk Olson, VP, TrendSights at Horizon Media. "Many Millennials still face underemployment and Gen Z-ers who've begun working are often working service jobs dependent on tips. Considering the rising popularity of Bernie Sanders' "living wage" stance among the same group, it makes perfect sense that they show greater interest in seeing tipping evolve," continued Olson.  "They're also more global and connected. They know 'service included' is the way it's done elsewhere and think it would be better for the U.S., even if they're not convinced it will become a reality any time soon."

Regardless of age, those who are interested in switching to a built-in tip structure are passionate about the benefits – primarily as a way to better predict cost; those who prefer built-in tipping are over two and a half times more likely to say the cost of the entire meal would be clearer prior to ordering (70% vs. 26% who want tipping left as is). Fairness is an important motivator as well: 62% of those who welcome built-in tipping say it would ensure the servers earn a fair and liveable wage (vs. 32% who want things to stay as is), and 45% say the current tipping structure is outdated (versus 15% among those who want things to stay as is).

"While the research suggests consumers aren't quite ready to abandon tipping per se, it does portend that in the future convenience will likely trump control," said Rich Simms, EVP, Managing Partner at Horizon Media. "Tomorrow's restaurant-goers may find that not having to think about the tip is a core benefit of the whole transaction. Hospitality brands making the change now may be at the forefront of something that will become standard practice in ten more years."

How much more are they willing to pay per menu item to have tip built in? One third (34%) say they would pay up to 15% more per item, with an additional 1 in 10 saying an increase of 18-25% would be fair in order to change tipping practices.

Finger on the Pulse empowers the agency to connect directly with 3,000 consumers, diving beneath the surface of beliefs and behaviors to uncover critical insights.

About Horizon Media Horizon Media, Inc. is the largest and fastest growing privately held media services agency in the world. The company was founded in 1989, is headquartered in New York and has offices in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Chicago. Horizon Media was chosen as 2011 Independent Media Agency of the Year by Mediapost, 2010 U.S. Media Agency of the Year by Adweek, Brandweek, and Mediaweek as well as by Ad Age and as one of the world's ten most innovative marketing and advertising companies by Fast Company in 2011. In 2012, Bill Koenigsberg, President, CEO and Founder, was honored by Advertising Age as Industry Executive of the Year. Most recently, in 2014, Bill Koenigsberg was named 4As Chair of the Board and is the first person from a media agency to hold this prestigious position in the 100 year history of the 4As, the marketing industry's leading trade association.

The company's mission is "To create the most meaningful brand connections within the lives of people everywhere." By delivering on this mission through a holistic approach to brand marketing, Horizon Media has become one of the largest and fastest-growing media agencies in the industry, with estimated billings of over $5.3 billion and over 1,200 employees.

The company is also a founding member of Columbus Media International, a multi-national partnership of independent media agencies. For more information, please visit horizonmedia.com.

(via PRNewswire)