Women-Owned Restaurants Driving Growth

In 48 states plus the District of Columbia, women-owned restaurant businesses grew faster than the state’s overall restaurant industry between 2007 and 2012, according to the NRA’s Chief Economist Bruce Grindy. His Economist’s Notebook commentary and analysis appears regularly on Restaurant.org and Restaurant TrendMapper.

Women-owned restaurant businesses grew at a rate more than three times faster than the overall restaurant industry in recent years, according to newly-released data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Between 2007 and 2012 (most recent data available), the number of women-owned restaurant businesses in the U.S. jumped 40 percent. During the same five-year period, the total number of restaurant businesses in the U.S. rose 12 percent. 

As a result of these strong gains, 33 percent of restaurant businesses are majority-owned by women – up from 26 percent in 2007. Another 15 percent of restaurant businesses are equally-owned by women and men. Taken together, nearly one-half of all restaurant businesses in the U.S. are at least 50-percent-owned by women. 

Throughout most of the country, women-owned businesses have been driving growth in the restaurant industry in recent years. In fact, in 48 states plus the District of Columbia, women-owned restaurant businesses grew faster than the state’s overall restaurant industry between 2007 and 2012.

Mississippi saw the fastest growth in women-owned restaurant businesses between 2007 and 2012, at 95 percent. Delaware (86 percent), Nevada (73 percent) and Arizona (71 percent) also saw strong growth in the number of women-owned restaurant businesses during the five-year period.

The states with the highest proportion of restaurant businesses that are majority-owned by women are Georgia (44 percent), Mississippi (43 percent), Texas (42 percent), Alabama (41 percent) and Louisiana (40 percent).

The states with the highest proportion of restaurant businesses that are at least 50-percent-owned by women are Montana (63 percent), Idaho (62 percent), Wyoming (62 percent), Washington (61 percent) and North Dakota (59 percent).

(via National Restaurant Association)

Restaurant Sales Regained Momentum in November

 

Restaurant same-store sales growth returned to positive territory during November making the improvement from last month’s year-over-year sales growth rate is the largest reported by the industry since June of 2015. This insight comes from data reported by TDn2K’s™ Black Box Intelligence™ through The Restaurant Industry Snapshot™, based on weekly sales from over 22,000 restaurant units, 120+ brands, representing $55 billion dollars in annual revenue.

Dallas, Texas (PRWEB) December 04, 2015

After disappointing restaurant sales in October, momentum was regained as same-store sales growth returned to positive territory during November. Although the 0.5 percent sales growth experienced in November can be considered relatively modest, especially compared with the average 2.2 percent same-store sales growth reported for the first nine months of the year, the 0.6 percent upward swing compared with the -0.2 percent same-store sales growth reported for October is encouraging. This improvement from last month’s year-over-year sales growth rate is the largest reported by the industry since June of 2015. This insight comes from data reported by TDn2K’s™ Black Box Intelligence™ through The Restaurant Industry Snapshot™, based on weekly sales from over 22,000 restaurant units, 120+ brands, representing $55 billion dollars in annual revenue.

“At a national level, many of the key economic indicators are still positive: job growth is expected to be reported as strong for November, unemployment is still slowly declining and consumer sentiment continues to be relatively strong compared with previous years. It is not surprising that the restaurant industry was able to rebound and post positive same-store sales growth during November, albeit small, especially when factoring the effect of increasing average guest checks,” said Victor Fernandez, Executive Director of Insights and Knowledge for TDn2K. “However, it is difficult to be too optimistic for the fourth quarter, given the declining trend in same-store sales growth we have been reporting on throughout the year. Growth continues to be positive, but we are definitely experiencing a slowdown in restaurant sales.”

At the end of November, quarter-to-date same-store sales growth is 0.2 percent; a big drop from the 1.5 percent posted during the third quarter. Year-to-date same-store sales growth is now 1.8 percent as we head into the last month of the year.

There is favorable news for the industry observed in the increase of same-store sales during November as a result of an improvement in traffic and not because of companies increasing their prices. Same-store traffic growth was -1.7 percent during November, a significant 1.1 percent improvement over the -2.8 percent reported for October. “However the chain restaurant industry as a whole continues to have a chronic traffic problem,” continued Fernandez, “and it has worsened during the last couple of months. The average same-store traffic growth for October and November was -2.2 percent, compared with an average -1.1 percent for the first nine months of the year.”

The steady drop in average guest check growth is a key component in the slowdown in sales experienced since July. While the average guest check growth in comparable stores during the first six months of the year was 3.4 percent, the average for the five months since then was only 2.5 percent. Furthermore, the 2.0 percent growth posted in November is the lowest year-over-year increase in average guest check reported by the industry since June of 2014. A factor behind this decrease in average guest check growth seems to be a decline in same-store beverage sales, which have reported negative growth during the last three quarters while food sales growth has been able to remain positive.

As has been the case during most of this year, the segments in limited service (Quick Service and Fast Casual) were the top performers based on same-store sales growth during November, significantly outpacing the sales growth of the full service segments of the industry.

Although at the regional level there are significant differences in sales growth performances, the slowdown in sales has been widespread and affected all regions of the country. The average same-store sales growth for October and November combined was lower than the average for the three previous months in all 11 regions of the country tracked by Black Box Intelligence. The best performing region was California for the fourth consecutive month, with same-store sales growth of 2.9 percent and -0.2 percent traffic growth during November. The worst performing region for the third consecutive month was the Southwest (Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma and New Mexico), which posted -3.3 percent same-store sales growth and -4.6 percent for traffic. The impact of the energy industry downturn seems to continue to be a factor in oil producing states, since in addition to the slump in the Southwest, the Texas region was one of the only three that experienced negative sales growth during November and has now endured three consecutive months of same-store sales growth.

From a market perspective, 103 (53 percent) out of the 193 DMAs tracked by Black Box Intelligence reported positive same-store sales growth during November. Although an improvement from the 42 percent of DMAs that posted positive growth during October, this represents a considerable decline from the average 71 percent of DMAs that had positive sales growth during the June through September period.

As restaurant sales dropped in October, so did the number of new jobs created by the restaurant industry according to TDn2K’s People Report’s™ latest reports. Jobs in restaurants grew by 3.9 percent year-over-year during October; while the average growth rate for the previous three months was 4.6 percent. Even with this slowdown in October, the chain restaurant industry continues to consistently outpace the rest of the economy when it comes to job creation. As a comparison, the average year-over-year growth rate in total number of non-farm jobs was only 2.0 percent during the September through October period. The restaurant industry is creating jobs at more than twice that rate.

The pressures of the tightening labor market continue to be felt by restaurants in the form of rising turnover levels. After three months of flat restaurant management turnover rates, rolling 12 month turnover started climbing again and now has increased during eight of the last 12 months ending in October. Meanwhile, restaurant hourly turnover remains in its upward trend that started back in September of 2013. Rolling 12 month hourly employee turnover in restaurants has increased during 26 consecutive months. Staffing and retention has become a major concern for operators and expectations are for continued challenges in this area in months to come.

According to TDn2K’s White Box Social Intelligence™ based on a sample of almost 8.5 million online mentions, guest sentiment towards chain restaurants became more positive during November compared with previous months. Out of three key guest satisfaction indicators tracked in the Restaurant Industry Snapshot (“food”, “service” and “intent to return”), all showed a higher percentage of positive sentiment mentions than in any of the previous seven months. Tied to this increased positive sentiment seems to be the buzz around holiday events and promotions that started to take over the social chatter for restaurants in November.

The top performing segment during November based on percentage of positive mentions for all three guest satisfaction attributes was Fine Dining (this segment was also the top performer for “service” and “intent to return” the previous month). This might also be tied to holiday events planned for and promoted by the brands in this segment. However, nearly all industry segments saw an increase in their positive-sentiment conversations during November, providing some encouraging news for the industry as we head into the last month of the year.

TDn2K™ (Transforming Data into Knowledge) is the parent company of People Report™, Black Box Intelligence™ and White Box Social Intelligence™. People Report provides service-sector human capital and workforce analytics for its members on a monthly basis. Black Box Intelligence provides weekly financial and market level data for the restaurant industry. White Box Social Intelligence delivers unparalleled consumer insights and reveals online brand health. Together they report on over 32,000 restaurant units, over one million employees and $55 billion in sales. They are also the producers of two leading restaurant industry conferences: Summer Brand Camp and the Global Best Practices Conference each held annually in Dallas, Texas.

(via Press Release Rocket)

Restaurants Expected to Rebound after October Slump

 

After disappointing restaurant sales in October, momentum was regained as same-store sales growth returned to positive territory during November. Although the 0.5 percent sales growth experienced in November can be considered relatively modest, especially compared with the average 2.2 percent same-store sales growth reported for the first nine months of the year, the 0.6 percent upward swing compared with the -0.2 percent same-store sales growth reported for October is encouraging. This improvement from last month’s year-over-year sales growth rate is the largest reported by the industry since June 2015. This insight comes from data reported by TDn2K’s Black Box Intelligence through The Restaurant Industry Snapshot, based on weekly sales from over 22,000 restaurant units, 120-plus brands, representing $55 billion dollars in annual revenue.

“At a national level, many of the key economic indicators are still positive. Job growth is expected to be reported as strong for November, unemployment is still slowly declining and consumer sentiment continues to be relatively strong compared with previous years. It is not surprising that the restaurant industry was able to rebound and post positive same-store sales growth during November, albeit small, especially when factoring the effect of increasing average guest checks,” says Victor Fernandez, executive director of insights and knowledge for TDn2K. “However, it is difficult to be too optimistic for the fourth quarter, given the declining trend in same-store sales growth we have been reporting on throughout the year. Growth continues to be positive, but we are definitely experiencing a slowdown in restaurant sales.”

At the end of November, quarter-to-date same-store sales growth is 0.2 percent; a big drop from the 1.5 percent posted during the third quarter. Year-to-date same-store sales growth is now 1.8 percent as we head into the last month of the year.

There is favorable news for the industry observed in the increase of same-store sales during November as a result of an improvement in traffic and not because of companies increasing their prices. Same-store traffic growth was -1.7 percent during November, a significant 1.1 percent improvement over the -2.8 percent reported for October. “However the chain restaurant industry as a whole continues to have a chronic traffic problem,” Fernandez says, “and it has worsened during the last couple of months. The average same-store traffic growth for October and November was -2.2 percent, compared with an average -1.1 percent for the first nine months of the year.”

The steady drop in average guest check growth is a key component in the slowdown in sales experienced since July. While the average guest check growth in comparable stores during the first six months of the year was 3.4 percent, the average for the five months since then was only 2.5 percent. Furthermore, the 2.0 percent growth posted in November is the lowest year-over-year increase in average guest check reported by the industry since June 2014. A factor behind this decrease in average guest check growth seems to be a decline in same-store beverage sales, which have reported negative growth during the last three quarters while food sales growth has been able to remain positive.

As has been the case during most of this year, the segments in limited service (quick service and fast casual) were the top performers based on same-store sales growth during November, significantly outpacing the sales growth of the full service segments of the industry.

Although at the regional level there are significant differences in sales growth performances, the slowdown in sales has been widespread and affected all regions of the country. The average same-store sales growth for October and November combined was lower than the average for the three previous months in all 11 regions of the country tracked by Black Box Intelligence. The best performing region was California for the fourth consecutive month, with same-store sales growth of 2.9 percent and -0.2 percent traffic growth during November. The worst performing region for the third consecutive month was the Southwest (Louisiana, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico), which posted -3.3 percent same-store sales growth and -4.6 percent for traffic. The impact of the energy industry downturn seems to continue to be a factor in oil producing states, since in addition to the slump in the Southwest, the Texas region was one of the only three that experienced negative sales growth during November and has now endured three consecutive months of same-store sales growth.

From a market perspective, 103 (53 percent) out of the 193 DMAs tracked by Black Box Intelligence reported positive same-store sales growth during November. Although an improvement from the 42 percent of DMAs that posted positive growth during October, this represents a considerable decline from the average 71 percent of DMAs that had positive sales growth during the June through September period.

As restaurant sales dropped in October, so did the number of new jobs created by the restaurant industry according to TDn2K’s People Report latest reports. Jobs in restaurants grew by 3.9 percent year-over-year during October; while the average growth rate for the previous three months was 4.6 percent. Even with this slowdown in October, the chain restaurant industry continues to consistently outpace the rest of the economy when it comes to job creation. As a comparison, the average year-over-year growth rate in total number of non-farm jobs was only 2.0 percent during the September through October period. The restaurant industry is creating jobs at more than twice that rate.

The pressures of the tightening labor market continue to be felt by restaurants in the form of rising turnover levels. After three months of flat restaurant management turnover rates, rolling 12 month turnover started climbing again and now has increased during eight of the last 12 months ending in October. Meanwhile, restaurant hourly turnover remains in its upward trend that started back in September of 2013. Rolling 12-month hourly employee turnover in restaurants has increased during 26 consecutive months. Staffing and retention has become a major concern for operators and expectations are for continued challenges in this area in months to come.

According to TDn2K’s White Box Social Intelligence based on a sample of almost 8.5 million online mentions, guest sentiment towards chain restaurants became more positive during November compared with previous months. Out of three key guest satisfaction indicators tracked in the Restaurant Industry Snapshot (“food”, “service,” and “intent to return”), all showed a higher percentage of positive sentiment mentions than in any of the previous seven months. Tied to this increased positive sentiment seems to be the buzz around holiday events and promotions that started to take over the social chatter for restaurants in November.

The top-performing segment during November based on percentage of positive mentions for all three guest-satisfaction attributes was fine dining (this segment was also the top performer for “service” and “intent to return” the previous month). This might also be tied to holiday events planned for and promoted by the brands in this segment. However, nearly all industry segments saw an increase in their positive-sentiment conversations during November, providing some encouraging news for the industry as we head into the last month of the year.

The Restaurant Industry Snapshot is a compilation of real sales and traffic results from over 193 DMAs representing 120-plus restaurant brands and over 22,000 units that are clients of Black Box Intelligence, a TDn2K company. Data is reported in six distinct segments: quick service, fast casual, family dining, casual dining, upscale casual, and fine dining. TDn2K is also the parent company to People Report and White Box Social Intelligence. People Report tracks the workforce analytics of one million restaurant employees. White Box Social Intelligence delivers consumer insights and reveals online brand health in relation to operational metrics. TDn2K reports on over 32,000 restaurant units, 1 million employees and $55 billion dollars in sales.

(via QSR Magazine)

Positive Sales Growth Continues During Q3; Concerns Emerge for Q4 Forecast

 

The restaurant industry continues its accelerated pace of job creation as sales continue to improve, however there was a slowdown in the growth rates for September. This insight comes from data reported by TDn2K’s™ Black Box Intelligence™ through The Restaurant Industry Snapshot™, insights based on weekly sales from over 22,000 restaurant units and 120 brands representing $55 billion dollars in annual revenue.

DALLAS, TEXAS (PRWEB) OCTOBER 09, 2015

The restaurant industry continues to post positive same-store sales results, however there was a slowdown in the growth rates for September and Q3 overall compared with previous periods. Q3 same-store sales growth was 1.5%, the fifth consecutive quarter of positive sales growth for the industry. The Q3 results represented a 0.3% drop from the growth rate reported for the second quarter. Year-to-date same store sales growth is tracking at 2.1% through the end of September, a significant improvement over the 0.6% reported for all of 2014. This insight comes from data reported by TDn2K’s™ Black Box Intelligence™ through The Restaurant Industry Snapshot™, insights based on weekly sales from over 22,000 restaurant units and 120 brands representing $55 billion dollars in annual revenue.

“We have just experienced the best five quarters since the recession based on sales growth, but concern remains for chain restaurants overall due to the continuously falling guest counts” says Victor Fernandez, Executive Director of Insights and Knowledge for TDn2K. “The last time we reported such a long period of consecutive same-store sales growth was in 2011-2012, but we are seeing much stronger growth in sales today. The previous five-quarter period with the highest same-store sales growth since the recession was from Q1 2011 through Q1 2012, as the economy’s recovery was beginning to take hold and the industry was climbing its way out of the sales slump of the recession. Average same-store sales growth per quarter during that period was 1.6%, compared with the average 2.0% reported by the industry for the five quarters ending in Q3 2015.”

Same-store traffic growth was -1.2% during Q3, a 0.5% improvement from Q2’s results. Causing concern is September’s same-store traffic growth of -1.3%, a 0.3% decline from the traffic growth in August and representing the worst traffic result since June. Comparing the results of the last five quarters, which have an average same-store traffic growth rate of -1.0% per quarter, with the average traffic growth of the Q1 2011 through Q1 2012 period (average -0.4% same-store traffic per quarter), it is clear that the superior results observed currently in sales growth are primarily the result of an increase in average guest checks. While positive in sales growth, the last five quarters have been lagged behind in guest counts. On a positive note, year-to-date same-store traffic growth has improved over 2014; -1.1%, vs. -1.8% respectively.

The best performing region during September was California for the second consecutive month with same-store sales of 4.4%. This significant growth in sales is fueled primarily by the fact that California was also the region with the highest average year-over-year guest check growth at 3.3%; likely a reflection of sharply rising prices as a result of the increasing labor costs in the state. The worst performing region during the month was the Southwest (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma) with same-store sales of -2.2%. Evidence of the slowdown in sales is also found in the drop in the number of individual markets which posted positive same-store sales growth during September. A total of 126 DMAs (or 65% of the 193 DMAs covered by Black Box Intelligence) reported increasing sales growth during the month, compared with 71% of the DMAs which had positive same-store sales growth in August.

The economy is showing some signs of weakness regarding still stagnant growth in employment and wages. Both of these factors are critical in fueling the continued growth of consumer spending in the restaurant sector. The Q3 average for job gains was the lowest three-month average in the last two and a half years and suggests that restaurants could experience headwinds in their sales and traffic as we enter Q4. It appears we could be seeing this impact already in September’s results. Consumers still seem to be optimistic about the future, but if payrolls and wage rates are not expanding at the same pace as in recent quarters, income might not keep up at the same level of growth as we’ve seen.

“Looking forward to Q4, we must consider the effect of the winter weather in the sales results. Last year’s Q4 and Q1 2015 posted sales growth rates of 2.5% and 2.9% respectively, primarily aided by more favorable weather conditions during the winter months than the previous year,” observed Fernandez. “As we enter the last quarter of the year, the rollover rate and weather could again become an issue, especially during December.”

The chain restaurant industry continues its accelerated pace of job creation as sales continue to improve. Based on the latest data available from TDn2K’s™ People Report™, the number of jobs in restaurants increased by 4.6% year-over-year during August, an increase from the 4.4% growth rate reported for July. On average, the number of jobs has now increased by 3.2% each month year-over-year since January.

As the unemployment rate nears full employment levels, restaurant hourly employees and managers are increasingly receptive to changing jobs in search of better opportunities. This is evidenced by the increasing turnover rates reported for hourly employees over the last 24 consecutive months. For restaurant managers turnover rates seem to have stabilized over the last two months after increasing during 14 of the previous 15 months. However, even though management turnover seems to have stopped increasing, at least in the short term, the churn rates being reported by restaurants are already at extremely high levels and have become a major concern for operators.

Regarding restaurant guest satisfaction, as measured by TDn2K’s™ White Box Social Intelligence, of the three key guest satisfaction attributes tracked (“food”, “service” and “intent to return”) from a sample of 6.6 million social media mentions during September, guests are increasingly talking about service when posting about restaurants on social media. The majority of guest mentions are still overwhelmingly about food (with a third of all mentions centered on this attribute during the month), but the percentage of mentions based on service has increased steadily since the beginning of the year. Although less than 10% of all mentions were about the service in January and February, during September 27% of the online posts about the restaurant brands tracked were centered on discussing service.

The best performing industry segment based on percentage of their positive food and service mentions during September was Casual Dining, while the segment that generated the highest percentage of positive “intent to return” mentions was Upscale Casual/Fine Dining.

TDn2K (Transforming Data into Knowledge) is the parent company of People Report, Black Box Intelligence and White Box Social Intelligence. People Report provides service-sector human capital and workforce analytics for its members on a monthly basis. Black Box Intelligence provides weekly financial and market level data for the restaurant industry. White Box Social Intelligence delivers unparalleled consumer insights and reveals online brand health. Together they report on over 32,000 restaurant units, over one million employees and $55 billion in sales. They are also the producers of two leading restaurant industry conferences: Summer Brand Camp and the Global Best Practices Conference, each held annually in Dallas, Texas.

(via PRWeb)